The public salience of crime has wide‐ranging political and social implications; it influences public trust in the government and citizens’ everyday routines and interactions, and it may affect policy responsiveness to punitive attitudes. Identifying the sources of crime salience is thus important. Two competing theoretical models exist: the objectivist model and the social constructionist model. According to the first, crime salience is a function of the crime rate. According to the second, crime salience is a function of media coverage and political rhetoric, and trends in crime salience differ across population subgroups as a result of differences in their responsiveness to elite initiatives. In both theories, period‐level effects predominate. Variation in crime salience, however, may also reflect age and cohort effects. Using data from 422,504 respondents interviewed between 1960 and 2014, we first examine the nature of crime salience using hierarchical age–period–cohort (HAPC) models and then analyze period‐level predictors using first differences. We find that 1) crime salience varies mostly at the period level; 2) crime salience trends are parallel (cointegrated) across demographic, socioeconomic, and partisan groups; and 3) crime salience trends within every population subgroup are most consistent with the constructionist model. The crime rate does not exert a significant effect in any subgroup.

中文翻译：

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1960年至2014年犯罪的公众关注度：年龄，时期，队列和时间序列分析†

犯罪的公众显着性具有广泛的政治和社会影响。它影响公众对政府和公民日常工作和互动的信任，也可能影响政策对惩罚性态度的反应。因此，确定犯罪显着性的来源很重要。存在两种相互竞争的理论模型：客观主义模型和社会建构主义模型。首先，犯罪显着性是犯罪率的函数。根据第二种观点，犯罪显着性是媒体报道和政治言论的函数，由于人口对精英行动的反应能力不同，犯罪显着性趋势在不同人群之间也有所不同。在这两种理论中，周期水平的影响都占主导地位。但是，犯罪显着性的变化也可能反映出年龄和队列影响。使用422中的数据，在1960年至2014年期间对504名受访者进行了访谈，我们首先使用分层的年龄-时期-队列（HAPC）模型来检查犯罪显着性的本质，然后使用初次差异来分析时期水平的预测因子。我们发现：1）犯罪显着性在期间级别上变化很大；2）犯罪显着性趋势在人口，社会经济和游击党群体之间是平行的（共同的）；3）每个人口子群体中的犯罪显着性趋势与建构主义模型最一致。犯罪率在任何亚组中均未发挥重大作用。2）犯罪显着性趋势在人口，社会经济和游击党群体之间是平行的（共同的）；3）每个人口子群体中的犯罪显着性趋势与建构主义模型最一致。犯罪率在任何亚组中均未发挥重大作用。2）犯罪显着性趋势在人口，社会经济和游击党群体之间是平行的（共同的）；3）每个人口子群体中的犯罪显着性趋势与建构主义模型最一致。犯罪率在任何亚组中均未发挥重大作用。