The subjective interpretation of probability—increasingly influential in other fields—makes probability a useful tool of historical analysis. It provides a framework that can accommodate the significant epistemic uncertainty involved in estimating historical quantities, especially (but not only) regarding periods for which we have limited data. Conceptualizing uncertainty in terms of probability distributions is a useful discipline because it forces historians to consider the degree of uncertainty as well as to identify a most-likely value. It becomes even more useful when multiple uncertain quantities are combined in a single analysis, a common occurrence in ancient history. Though it may appear a radical departure from current practice, it builds upon a probabilism that is already latent in historical reasoning. Most estimates of quantities in ancient history are implicit expressions of probability distributions, insofar as they represent the value judged to be most likely, given the available evidence. But the traditional point-estimate approach leaves historians’ beliefs about the likelihood of other possible values unclear or unexamined.

中文翻译：

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认知不确定性，主观概率和古代历史

对概率的主观解释（在其他领域越来越有影响力）使概率成为历史分析的有用工具。它提供了一个框架，可以容纳估计历史量时所涉及的重大认识论不确定性，尤其是（但不仅限于）关于我们数据有限的时期。根据概率分布将不确定性概念化是一门有用的学科，因为它迫使历史学家考虑不确定性的程度并确定最可能的值。当在单个分析中组合多个不确定量时，该功能将变得更加有用，这在古代历史中很常见。尽管它看起来可能与当前的实践有根本性的偏离，但它建立在历史推理中已经存在的概率之上。在古代史上，对数量的大多数估计都是概率分布的隐式表示，只要它们代表了在有可用证据的情况下被判断为最有可能出现的值。但是传统的点估计方法使历史学家对其他可能值的可能性的看法不清楚或未经检验。