In sociological studies of economic stratification and intergenerational mobility, occupation has long been presumed to reflect lifetime earnings better than do short-term earnings. However, few studies have actually tested this critical assumption. In this study, we investigate the cross-sectional determinants of 20-year accumulated earnings using data that match respondents in the Survey of Income and Program Participation to their longitudinal earnings records based on administrative tax information from 1990 to 2009. Fit statistics of regression models are estimated to assess the predictive power of various proxy variables, including occupation, education, and short-term earnings, on cumulative earnings over the 20-year time period. Contrary to the popular assumption in sociology, our results find that cross-sectional earnings have greater predictive power on long-term earnings than occupation-based class classifications, including three-digit detailed occupations for both men and women. The model based on educational attainment, including field of study, has slightly better fit than models based on one-digit occupation or the Erikson, Goldthorpe, and Portocarero class scheme. We discuss the theoretical implications of these findings for the sociology of stratification and intergenerational mobility.

中文翻译：

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人生机会的来源：教育，阶级类别，职业或短期收入能预测20年的长期收入吗？

在关于经济分层和代际流动性的社会学研究中，长期以来一直认为职业比短期收入更能反映一生的收入。但是，很少有研究实际检验过这一关键假设。在这项研究中，我们使用1990年至2009年间根据行政税收信息将收入和计划参与调查中的受访者与其纵向收入记录相匹配的数据，调查了20年累积收入的横截面决定因素。回归模型的拟合统计估计可以评估各种代理变量（包括职业，学历和短期收入）对20年期间累计收入的预测能力。与社会学中流行的假设相反，我们的结果发现，与基于职业的类别分类（包括男性和女性的三位数详细职业）相比，横截面收入对长期收入具有更大的预测力。基于教育程度（包括研究领域）的模型比基于一位职业或Erikson，Goldthorpe和Portocarero班级计划的模型具有更好的拟合度。我们讨论了这些发现对分层和代际流动性社会学的理论意义。和Portocarero班级计划。我们讨论了这些发现对分层和代际流动性社会学的理论意义。和Portocarero班计划。我们讨论了这些发现对分层和代际流动性社会学的理论意义。