:Why hasn’t economic progress lowered work hours more? One of Keynes’s most famous essays is his “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren.” Keynes predicts that within one hundred years — which would bring us to 2030 — most scarcity will have disappeared and most individuals will work no more than fifteen hours a week. My question is a simple one: Why wasn’t Keynes right? Why have working hours remained as long as they have? Why hasn’t progress taken a more leisurely and less material form than what we have observed? Investigating that issue will help us get at the question of just how much progress has occurred. Under one view, Western life has been caught in a kind of rat race, and a lot of the gains of progress are illusory. For instance there is the argument that higher incomes are largely consumed as part of a futile race to win relative status, and living standards aren’t nearly as high as they might appear. Under some alternative scenarios, people haven’t moved to Keynes’s scenario for some good reasons, such as enjoying work more than we might think, or other hypotheses, as I will outline. In that case the observed changes in real income are robust, and measured correctly, or progress may even be greater than income measurements would indicate. I hope that addressing Keynes’s paradox can help us better understand this longstanding debate on the nature of modern progress.

中文翻译：

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为什么经济进步没有减少更多的工作时间？

: 为什么经济进步没有更多地减少工作时间？凯恩斯最著名的论文之一是他的“我们孙子的经济可能性”。凯恩斯预测，在一百年内——这将把我们带到 2030 年——大多数稀缺性将消失，大多数人每周工作不超过 15 小时。我的问题很简单：为什么凯恩斯不正确？为什么工作时间一直保持不变？为什么进步没有采取比我们观察到的更悠闲和更少物质的形式？调查这个问题将有助于我们了解到底取得了多少进展。一种观点认为，西方生活陷入了一种激烈的竞争，进步带来的很多收获都是虚幻的。例如，有一种观点认为，较高的收入在很大程度上被消耗为争取相对地位的徒劳竞赛的一部分，而生活水平并没有看上去那么高。在一些替代情景下，人们没有转向凯恩斯的情景有一些很好的理由，比如比我们想象的更享受工作，或者其他假设，正如我将概述的那样。在这种情况下，观察到的实际收入变化是稳健的，并且测量正确，或者进展甚至可能大于收入测量所显示的。我希望解决凯恩斯悖论可以帮助我们更好地理解这场关于现代进步本质的长期争论。比如比我们想象的更享受工作，或者其他假设，正如我将概述的那样。在这种情况下，观察到的实际收入变化是稳健的，并且测量正确，或者进展甚至可能大于收入测量所显示的。我希望解决凯恩斯悖论可以帮助我们更好地理解这场关于现代进步本质的长期争论。比如比我们想象的更享受工作，或者其他假设，正如我将概述的那样。在这种情况下，观察到的实际收入变化是稳健的，并且测量正确，或者进展甚至可能大于收入测量所显示的。我希望解决凯恩斯悖论可以帮助我们更好地理解这场关于现代进步本质的长期争论。