:This essay begins by dividing the traditional problem of free will and determinism into a “correlation” problem and an “explanation” problem. I then focus on the explanation problem, and argue that a standard form of abductive reasoning (that is, inference to the best explanation) may be useful in solving it. To demonstrate the fruitfulness of the abductive approach, I apply it to three standard accounts of free will. While each account implies the same solution to the correlation problem, each implies a unique solution to the explanationproblem. For example, all libertarian-friendly accounts of free will imply that it is impossible to act freely when determinism is true. However, only a narrow subset of libertarians have the theoretical resources to defend the incompatibilist claim that deterministic laws (qua deterministic) undermine free will, while other libertarians must reject this traditional incompatibilist view.

中文翻译：

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自由意志和决定论的问题：一种外推的方法

: 本文首先将自由意志和决定论的传统问题分为“相关”问题和“解释”问题。然后我专注于解释问题，并认为标准形式的溯因推理（即对最佳解释的推理）可能有助于解决这个问题。为了证明溯因推理的成果，我将其应用于三个标准的自由意志账户。虽然每个帐户都意味着相关问题的相同解决方案，但每个帐户都意味着解释问题的唯一解决方案。例如，所有对自由主义友好的关于自由的解释都暗示，当决定论为真时，就不可能自由行动。然而，只有一小部分自由主义者拥有理论资源来捍卫不相容的主张，即确定性法则（夸确定性）破坏自由意志，而其他自由主义者必须拒绝这种传统的不相容观点。