What meaning does epidemiological evidence have for the individual? In evidence-based medicine, epidemiological evidence measures the patient’s risk of the outcome or the change in risk due to an intervention. The patient’s risk is commonly understood as an individual probability. The problem of understanding epidemiological evidence and risk thus becomes the challenge of interpreting individual patient probabilities. I argue that the patient’s risk is interpreted ontically, as a propensity. After exploring formidable problems with this interpretation in the medical context, I propose an epistemic reinterpretation of individual patient probabilities as credences. On this view, epidemiological evidence informs medical uncertainty.

中文翻译：

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流行病学证据：使用风险自负？

流行病学证据对个人有什么意义？在循证医学中，流行病学证据衡量患者的结果风险或由于干预而导致的风险变化。患者的风险通常被理解为个体概率。因此，理解流行病学证据和风险的问题成为解释个体患者概率的挑战。我认为病人的风险被解释为一种倾向。在探索了医学背景下这种解释的艰巨问题后，我建议将个体患者概率的认知重新解释为凭据。根据这种观点，流行病学证据表明医学上的不确定性。