I evaluate the plausibility of explanatory elitism, the view that a good scientific explanation of an outcome will show that it was highly probable. I consider an argument from Michael Strevens that elitism is the only view that can account for the historical acceptance of probabilistic theories in physics. I argue that biology provides better test cases for evaluating elitism and conclude that theories in that domain were favored in virtue of conferring correct, and not necessarily high, probabilities on outcomes.

中文翻译：

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低概率科学解释的辩护

我评估了解释性精英主义的合理性，即对结果的良好科学解释将表明它很有可能的观点。我考虑了 Michael Strevens 的一个论点，即精英主义是唯一可以解释物理学中概率理论被历史接受的观点。我认为生物学为评估精英主义提供了更好的测试案例，并得出结论，该领域的理论因赋予正确的、不一定高的结果概率而受到青睐。