We study the effect of television ads in the market for health insurance for the elderly. Regulators are concerned about firms potentially using ads to "cream skim", or attract an advantageous risk pool as well as the potential for firms to use misinformation to take advantage of the elderly. On the other hand, ads could provide useful information or remind people to reconsider their options, making regulation potentially welfare reducing. Using the discontinuity in advertising exposure created by the borders of television markets, we estimate television advertising to have on average zero lift on the share of seniors who choose private Medicare Advantage (MA) plans over government-provided Traditional Medicare (TM) with enough precision to reject the null of positive ROI from market expansion. Leveraging the unilateral cessation of advertising by United Healthcare for three years, we additionally find that rival advertising provided zero average impact on United's brand share with enough precision to reject positive ROI from business stealing. Additionally, advertising is not more effective in counties with a healthier population, potentially easing the concern over cream skimming. The lack of advertising effect cannot be attributed to the shape of the advertising response curve or to long-run effects.

中文翻译：

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健康保险市场中的广告

我们研究了电视广告在老年人健康保险市场中的作用。监管者担心企业可能使用广告“脱脂”，或吸引有利的风险池，以及企业利用错误信息利用老年人的潜力。另一方面，广告可能会提供有用的信息或提醒人们重新考虑他们的选择，从而使法规有可能减少福利。利用电视市场边界所造成的广告曝光的不连续性，我们估计电视广告平均比选择政府提供的传统医疗保险（TM）的老年人选择私人医疗保险计划（MA）的老年人比例平均零提升拒绝市场扩张带来的零回报。利用联合医疗集团单方面停止广告宣传三年的经验，我们还发现竞争对手的广告对联合航空的品牌份额产生了平均影响为零，且精确度足以抵制偷窃业务带来的正ROI。另外，广告在人口健康的县中不是更有效，有可能减轻对脱脂奶油的关注。广告效果不足的原因不能归因于广告响应曲线的形状或长期效果。潜在地减轻了对脱脂奶油的担忧。广告效果不足的原因不能归因于广告响应曲线的形状或长期效果。潜在地减轻了对脱脂奶油的担忧。广告效果不足的原因不能归因于广告响应曲线的形状或长期效果。