Choice-based conjoint (CBC) studies have begun to rely on simulators to forecast equilibrium prices for pricing, strategic product positioning, and patent/copyright valuations. Whereas CBC research has long focused on the accuracy of estimated relative partworths of attribute levels, predicted equilibrium prices and strategic positioning are surprisingly and dramatically dependent on scale: the magnitude of the partworths (including the price coefficient) relative to the magnitude of the error term. Although the impact of scale on the ability to estimate heterogeneous partworths is well known, neither the literature nor current practice address the sensitivity of pricing and positioning to scale. This sensitivity is important because (estimated) scale depends on seemingly innocuous market-research decisions such as whether attributes are described by text or by realistic images. We demonstrate the strategic implications of scale using a stylized model in which heterogeneity is modeled explicitly. If a firm shirks on the quality of a CBC study and acts on incorrectly observed scale, a follower, but not an innovator, can make costly strategic errors. Externally valid estimates of scale are extremely important. We demonstrate empirically that image realism and incentive alignment affect scale sufficiently to change strategic decisions and affect patent/copyright valuations by hundreds of millions of dollars.

中文翻译：

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基于选择的联合分析中规模的战略意义

基于选择的联合（CBC）研究已经开始依靠模拟器来预测定价，战略产品定位和专利/版权估价的均衡价格。尽管CBC的研究长期以来一直专注于属性级别的估计相对部分价值的准确性，但是预测的均衡价格和战略定位却出乎意料地并极大地取决于规模：部分价值的大小（包括价格系数）相对于误差项的大小。尽管规模对估计异构部分价值的能力的影响是众所周知的，但是文献和当前实践都没有解决定价和规模定位的敏感性。这种敏感性很重要，因为（估计的）规模取决于看似无害的市场研究决策，例如属性是用文字还是用逼真的图像来描述。我们使用风格化模型（其中明确地建模异质性）来证明规模的战略意义。如果一家公司对CBC研究的质量视而不见，并采取了错误地观察规模的行动，那么追随者而不是创新者会犯下代价高昂的战略错误。外部有效的规模估算极为重要。我们凭经验证明，图像现实主义和激励措施对规模的影响足以改变战略决策，并影响专利/版权估价达数亿美元。我们使用风格化模型（其中明确地建模异质性）来证明规模的战略意义。如果一家公司对CBC研究的质量视而不见，并采取了错误地观察规模的行动，那么追随者而不是创新者会犯下代价高昂的战略错误。外部有效的规模估算极为重要。我们凭经验证明，图像现实主义和激励措施对规模的影响足以改变战略决策，并影响专利/版权估价达数亿美元。我们使用风格化模型（其中明确地建模异质性）来证明规模的战略意义。如果一家公司对CBC研究的质量视而不见，并采取了错误地观察规模的行动，那么追随者而不是创新者会犯下代价高昂的战略错误。外部有效的规模估算极为重要。我们凭经验证明，图像现实主义和激励措施对规模的影响足以改变战略决策，并影响专利/版权估价达数亿美元。