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KEYNES, PUBLIC DEBT, AND THE COMPLEX OF INTEREST RATES
Journal of the History of Economic Thought ( IF 0.583 ) Pub Date : 2018-12-18 , DOI: 10.1017/s1053837217000578
Tony Aspromourgos

John Maynard Keynes consistently offered qualified endorsement of Abba Lerner’s “functional finance” doctrine—the qualifications particularly turning on Keynes’s attentiveness to policy management of the psychology of the debt market. This article examines Keynes’s understanding of the possible influence of public debt on interest rates, from 1930 forward. With the multiplier a mechanism whereby debt-financed public investment generates matching private saving (net of private investment) plus public saving, it becomes possible for Keynes to conclude that increasing public debt need not place upward pressure on the level of interest rates, so long as policy can successfully manage the psychology of the debt market. This particularly concerns long interest rates and hence the term structure of rates. His theory of the term structure enables Keynes’s conviction that policy can manage and shape long rates. The conclusion considers also whether Keynes’s caution concerning public debt and interest rates retains relevance today.

中文翻译:

凯恩斯、公共债务和利率复合体

约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯始终对阿巴·勒纳的“功能金融”学说提供有条件的认可——这些条件尤其体现了凯恩斯对债务市场心理政策管理的关注。本文考察了凯恩斯对自 1930 年以来公共债务对利率的可能影响的理解。有了乘数机制,债务融资的公共投资产生匹配的私人储蓄(扣除私人投资)加上公共储蓄,凯恩斯就有可能得出结论,增加公共债务不需要对利率水平施加上行压力,只要因为政策可以成功地管理债务市场的心理。这尤其涉及长期利率,因此也涉及利率期限结构。他的期限结构理论使凯恩斯相信政策可以管理和塑造长期利率。该结论还考虑了凯恩斯对公共债务和利率的谨慎态度在今天是否仍然适用。
更新日期:2018-12-18
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