This article examines the early regulation of futures markets in the 1920s and 1930s. We contrast the analysis of speculation developed by the Grain Futures Administration (GFA) with Holbrook Working’s. Within the GFA we focus on Paul Mehl, who directed the statistical analysis of order flows, trade volumes, and positions that supported the GFA’s policy recommendations. In retrospect Working was the most prominent academic analyst of futures markets. The relationship between the GFA and Working was complex and at times intimately collaborative, but the New Deal provoked sharp disagreement. Working rejected the tighter trading rules advocated by the GFA as counterproductive and tried to persuade the Secretary of Agriculture to embrace a discretionary approach to regulation based upon his analysis of neighboring futures prices (the Working curve) and his distinctive conception of “perfect markets”—a nuanced version of the subsequent efficient market hypothesis.

中文翻译：

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投机与美国期货市场早期调控的碰撞分析

本文考察了 1920 年代和 1930 年代期货市场的早期监管。我们将谷物期货管理局 (GFA) 与 Holbrook Working 的投机分析进行对比。在 GFA 中，我们关注 Paul Mehl，他指导了支持 GFA 政策建议的订单流、交易量和头寸的统计分析。回想起来，Working 是期货市场最杰出的学术分析师。GFA 和 Working 之间的关系是复杂的，有时是密切合作的，但新政引发了尖锐的分歧。