This paper deals with a debate among Ralph George Hawtrey, John Richard Hicks, and John Maynard Keynes concerning the capacity of the central bank to influence the short-term and the long-term rates of interest. Both Hawtrey and Keynes considered the central bank’s ability to influence short-term rates of interest. However, they do not put the same emphasis on the study of the long-term rates of interest. According to Keynes, long-term rates are influenced by future expected short-term rates (1930, 1936), whereas for Hawtrey ([1932] 1962, 1937, 1938), long-term rates are more dependent on the business cycle. Short-term rates do not have much effect on long-term rates, according to Hawtrey. In 1939, Hicks enters the controversy, giving credit to both Hawtrey’s and Keynes’s theories, and also introducing limits to the operations of arbitrage. He thus presented a nuanced view.

中文翻译：

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套利和利率的限制：凯恩斯、霍特雷和希克斯之间的争论

本文讨论了拉尔夫·乔治·霍特里、约翰·理查德·希克斯和约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯之间关于中央银行影响短期和长期利率的能力的辩论。霍特里和凯恩斯都考虑了央行影响短期利率的能力。然而，他们并没有把同样的重点放在对长期利率的研究上。根据凯恩斯的说法，长期利率受未来预期短期利率的影响（1930，1936），而对于霍特里（[1932] 1962，1937，1938），长期利率更依赖于商业周期。Hawtrey 表示，短期利率对长期利率没有太大影响。1939 年，希克斯加入了这场争论，他赞扬了霍特雷和凯恩斯的理论，同时也对套利操作进行了限制。