What drove the East Asian tide of democratization during the “Third Wave?” Instead of focusing on a single-factor explanation, we perform qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) on fourteen cases in the region of East Asia from 1980 to 2000 and find three parallel pathways: (1) overthrow model, which features the positive effects of mass mobilization against authoritarianism under a deinstitutionalized authoritarian regime; (2) urban pressure model that works under an institutionalized authoritarian regime; and (3) inside-out model, in which democratization is triggered by the joint forces of domestic and international conditions under both types of regimes. These results demonstrate that the authoritarianstatus quo anteis an important determinant of democratic transitions.

中文翻译：

---

东亚走向民主的途径：“第三波”的定性比较分析

是什么推动了“第三波”东亚民主化浪潮？我们不再关注单因素解释，而是对 1980 年至 2000 年东亚地区的 14 个案例进行了定性比较分析（QCA），发现了三个平行的路径：（1）推翻模型，它具有质量的积极影响。在去制度化的威权体制下动员反对威权主义；（2）在制度化的威权体制下运作的城市压力模型；（3）由内而外的模式，在这两种体制下，民主化是由国内和国际条件的合力触发的。这些结果表明，威权主义现状是民主转型的重要决定因素。