ABSTRACT

While the extant literature has highlighted the importance of UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) in addressing commitment problems in civil wars, actor fragmentation presents additional challenges for conflict resolution. A higher number of competing actors not only worsens coordination problems but also aggravates the risk of opposition to a peace process, generating an environment prone to spoiler violence. This article argues that UN interventions matter more when commitment and coordination problems are worse, which corresponds to known traits of fragmented conflicts. Using data on civil conflict duration and intensity, we present evidence that UN PKOs are effective at mitigating adverse impacts of fragmentation. Fragmented conflicts are both longer and deadlier when the UN is not involved to support a peace process, while UN peacekeeping mitigates the effects of fragmentation.

摘要

虽然现有文献强调了联合国维持和平行动（PKO）在解决内战中承诺问题方面的重要性，但行动者分散为解决冲突提出了更多挑战。竞争参与者的数量增加，不仅使协调问题恶化，而且加剧了反对和平进程的风险，产生了容易破坏暴力的环境。本文认为，当承诺和协调问题变得更糟时，联合国的干预措施就更为重要，这与分散的冲突的已知特征相对应。利用有关内战持续时间和强度的数据，我们提供了证据，表明联合国维和部有效减轻了分裂的不利影响。当联合国不参与支持和平进程时，分散的冲突既长又致命。