The U.S. homicide rate increases of 2015-2016 occurred within a longer recorded history of trend variations. This article examines the place of the 2 years within this history and considers if they were unusual. An analysis of more than five decades of panel data finds that 2015 and 2016 were, in fact, somewhat unusual, but not far outside the normal range of variation. The analysis also provides no evidence that changes like those in 2015-2016 can predict future trends. As a more general matter, this article argues for increased attention to the typical characteristics of crime rate changes.

中文翻译：

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2015年和2016年美国凶杀率上升

2015年至2016年美国凶杀率的上升是在趋势变化的历史记录较长的时间内发生的。本文考察了这两年中这两年的位置，并考虑它们是否不寻常。对超过五十年的面板数据进行的分析发现，实际上2015年和2016年有些不同寻常，但不超出正常的变化范围。该分析还没有提供证据表明像2015-2016年的变化可以预测未来趋势。作为一个更普遍的问题，本文主张更多地关注犯罪率变化的典型特征。