STIRPAT (stochastic impact by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model is used to identify the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangsu province. By referring to Kaya identity and combining with the actual situation of agricultural carbon emissions, four basic influencing factors were obtained: agricultural production efficiency, agricultural structure, agricultural economic development level, and agricultural population size. In addition, urbanization, mechanization, and natural disaster level were listed as influencing factors. The results demonstrated: (a) Urbanization was the first promoting factor of agricultural carbon emissions, indicating a 0.2510% increase in agricultural carbon emissions due to a 1% increase in urbanization. The other three positive factors were, respectively, agricultural mechanization, agricultural structure, and agricultural economic development and their influence indexes were 0.1481, 0.1163, and 0.0845, respectively. (b) Agricultural production efficiency was the most important factor to restrain agricultural carbon emissions. For every 1% increase in agricultural production efficiency, corresponding agricultural carbon emissions would be reduced by 0.3288%. Agricultural population size was also an important factor to reduce agricultural carbon emissions and its influence index was −0.045. Finally, we propose policy recommendations including implementation of orderly urbanization, dependence and development of low carbon technology, establishment of agricultural carbon compensation mechanism, etc.

中文翻译：

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基于扩展STIRPAT模型的江苏省农业碳排放驱动因素分析

采用STIRPAT（人口、富裕和技术回归的随机影响）模型识别江苏省农业碳排放的影响因素。参照卡亚身份，结合农业碳排放实际情况，得出农业生产效率、农业结构、农业经济发展水平、农业人口规模四个基本影响因素。此外，城市化、机械化和自然灾害水平也被列为影响因素。结果表明：（a）城镇化是农业碳排放的第一推动因素，城镇化水平每提高1%，农业碳排放量将增加0.2510%。其他三个积极因素分别是 农业机械化、农业结构、农业经济发展及其影响指数分别为0.1481、0.1163和0.0845。(b) 农业生产效率是抑制农业碳排放的最重要因素。农业生产效率每提高1%，相应的农业碳排放将减少0.3288%。农业人口规模也是减少农业碳排放的重要因素，其影响指数为-0.045。最后提出了实施有序城镇化、低碳技术依赖和发展、建立农业碳补偿机制等政策建议。和农业经济发展及其影响指数分别为0.1481、0.1163和0.0845。(b) 农业生产效率是抑制农业碳排放的最重要因素。农业生产效率每提高1%，相应的农业碳排放将减少0.3288%。农业人口规模也是减少农业碳排放的重要因素，其影响指数为-0.045。最后提出了实施有序城镇化、低碳技术依赖和发展、建立农业碳补偿机制等政策建议。和农业经济发展及其影响指数分别为0.1481、0.1163和0.0845。(b) 农业生产效率是抑制农业碳排放的最重要因素。农业生产效率每提高1%，相应的农业碳排放将减少0.3288%。农业人口规模也是减少农业碳排放的重要因素，其影响指数为-0.045。最后提出了实施有序城镇化、低碳技术依赖和发展、建立农业碳补偿机制等政策建议。农业生产效率每提高1%，相应的农业碳排放将减少0.3288%。农业人口规模也是减少农业碳排放的重要因素，其影响指数为-0.045。最后提出了实施有序城镇化、低碳技术依赖和发展、建立农业碳补偿机制等政策建议。农业生产效率每提高1%，相应的农业碳排放将减少0.3288%。农业人口规模也是减少农业碳排放的重要因素，其影响指数为-0.045。最后提出了实施有序城镇化、低碳技术依赖和发展、建立农业碳补偿机制等政策建议。