This article explores the usefulness of Contribution Analysis to understand and assess the outcomes and impacts of emergent, large-scale and transformational change processes. As these take place over long periods of time and at national if not supra-national scale, they amplify some of the key challenges complex interventions pose to evaluators, most notably that of the emergence of activities and outcomes. While Contribution Analysis is discussed in the literature as useful for the evaluation of complex change processes, it is not usually recommended for experimental and emergent interventions. This article draws on the authors’ experience of using Contribution Analysis in one such case and explores the relative merits of the method for large-scale/transformational change interventions generally.

中文翻译：

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使用贡献分析来评估大规模的转型变革过程

本文探讨了贡献分析在理解和评估紧急、大规模和转型变革过程的结果和影响方面的有用性。由于这些发生在很长一段时间内，而且在国家（如果不是超国家）范围内发生，它们放大了复杂干预措施给评估人员带来的一些关键挑战，最显着的是活动和结果的出现。虽然文献中讨论的贡献分析对评估复杂的变化过程很有用，但通常不建议将其用于实验性和紧急干预。本文借鉴了作者在一个此类案例中使用贡献分析的经验，并总体上探讨了该方法用于大规模/转型变革干预的相对优点。