ABSTRACT

This study uses the micro-simulation method to investigate the role of cohort forces in age-dependent mortality pattern. We test the micro mechanisms for cohort evolution and mortality selection, and how these two biological and demographic forces may interact with epidemiologic transition to shape the cohort age-dependence of mortality pattern in both early- and later-transition countries. We show that cohort evolution is due to the declining rate of mortality acceleration at the individual level, which is associated with lower initial mortality rates but not smaller variance of frailty distribution in later birth cohorts. The steeper slope of mortality acceleration at the population level among later birth cohorts is due to mortality selection mechanism associated with smaller variance of frailty distribution but not lower initial mortality rates. These two forces jointly shape the non-crossover cohort age-dependence of mortality pattern regardless of the differential mechanisms of epidemiologic transition in early- and later-transition countries.

摘要

本研究采用微观模拟方法来研究队列力在年龄依赖性死亡率模式中的作用。我们测试了队列演变和死亡率选择的微观机制，以及这两种生物和人口力量如何与流行病学转变相互作用，以塑造早期和后期转型国家的队列年龄依赖性死亡率模式。我们表明，队列进化是由于个体水平的死亡率加速率下降所致，这与较低的初始死亡率有关，但与后来出生队列中脆弱分布的较小方差无关。较晚出生队列中人口水平的死亡率加速斜率更陡，是由于死亡率选择机制与较小的衰弱分布方差相关，而不是较低的初始死亡率。无论转型早期和转型后期国家的流行病学转型机制有何不同，这两种力量共同塑造了非交叉队列年龄依赖性死亡率模式。