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Swimming against the tide: economic growth and demographic dividend in India
Asian Population Studies ( IF 1.950 ) Pub Date : 2018-04-03 , DOI: 10.1080/17441730.2018.1446379
William Joe 1 , Abhishek Kumar 1 , Sunil Rajpal 1
Affiliation  

ABSTRACT

There is an increasing policy focus on India’s demographic potential and associated growth benefits. This paper provides empirical evidence regarding the net growth benefits derived from an increased share of working-age population in India. The analysis adopts decomposition and econometric methods, using data at the state and national level in India, to robustly test the nature and magnitude of the demographic dividend in India. We find that the Indian economy is drawing significant benefits from the ongoing process of demographic transition, with dividend effects estimated to be over one percentage point per annum during 1980–2010. However, to derive high growth from the demographic potential would require tackling some of the growth constraints. The paper discusses ways in which these constraints can be addressed to fully tap the potential of demographic dividend.



中文翻译:

逆势而行:印度的经济增长和人口红利

摘要

政策越来越关注印度的人口潜力以及相关的增长收益。本文提供了有关印度工作年龄人口增加所带来的净增长收益的经验证据。该分析采用分解和计量经济学方法,利用印度州和国家级的数据,对印度人口红利的性质和规模进行了有力的检验。我们发现,印度经济正在从持续的人口转变过程中受益匪浅,在1980年至2010年期间,股息效应估计每年超过一个百分点。但是,要从人口潜力中获得高增长,就需要应对一些增长限制。

更新日期:2018-04-03
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