ABSTRACT The role of government policy in fertility change has been a central inquiry in understanding global demographic changes in the last half century. We return to this inquiry with longitudinal data for over 150 countries from 1976 to 2013 and use fixed-effects models to address common methodological concerns. Our results reveal that while government anti-natalist policies fail to show clear effects for all countries included, they are associated with significantly lower fertility in Asia and Latin America, two regions that have seen the most rapid fertility decline. For pro-natalist policies, which are becoming more popular in recent years, we detect only short-term positive effects, and effects limited to countries where fertility has not sunk below the ultra-low level of 1.4 children per woman. Combined, these results suggest that government policies are important in global fertility change, though the policy impacts vary by geographic location, timing, and fertility level.

中文翻译：

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政府政策与全球生育率变化：重新评估

摘要在过去的半个世纪中，政府政策在生育率变化中的作用一直是了解全球人口变化的中心问题。我们使用1976年至2013年期间150多个国家/地区的纵向数据返回此查询，并使用固定效应模型来解决常见的方法论问题。我们的结果表明，尽管政府的反种族主义政策并未对所有国家都显示出明显的效果，但它们与生育率下降最快的两个地区亚洲和拉丁美洲的生育率明显降低有关。对于近年来越来越流行的促胎教政策，我们仅检测到短期的积极影响，而且这种影响仅限于生育率尚未下降到每个妇女1.4个孩子的超低水平的国家。结合起来