ABSTRACT

A growing body of literature has suggested that, in the long-run, humanitarian aid, while well-intentioned, might be counter-productive to civil war conflict management because aid provides resources that help belligerents sustain their conflict, increasing the intensity of civil wars and lengthening their duration. This unintended consequence of humanitarian aid creates a paradox for policymakers. Those civil wars that are most resistant to settlement efforts generate the greatest need for humanitarian aid to limit the deadly effects of conflict on civilians. Yet, if humanitarian aid adds fuel to the fire of these same conflicts, making them more resistant to settlement and increasing the pain they impose upon civilians, policymakers might choose to avoid providing humanitarian assistance altogether in the hopes of hastening the end of the conflict. In this paper, I argue that while humanitarian aid can bring these unintended consequences, scholars have tended to overlook the way in which the combined effects of humanitarian aid and mediation can increase the likelihood of civil wars ending. I find that the combined effects of repeated mediation and high levels of humanitarian aid increase the likelihood both that conflicts will end and that they will terminate with peace agreements and cease-fires. This effect is especially strong for conflicts mediated by international organizations and major powers.

摘要

越来越多的文献表明，从长远来看，人道主义援助虽然本来就很好，但可能对内战冲突管理起反作用，因为援助提供的资源可以帮助交战者维持其冲突，增加内战的强度并延长他们的持续时间。人道主义援助的这种意想不到的后果为政策制定者带来了悖论。那些对定居点抵抗最大的内战引起了对人道主义援助的最大需求，以限制冲突对平民的致命影响。但是，如果人道主义援助助长了这些冲突的爆发，使它们更难以解决，并增加了他们对平民的痛苦，决策者可能选择完全避免提供人道主义援助，以期加速冲突的结束。在本文中，我认为，尽管人道主义援助会带来这些意想不到的后果，但学者们往往忽略了人道主义援助与调停相结合的效果会增加内战结束的可能性的方式。我发现，反复调停和高水平的人道主义援助的综合作用增加了冲突将结束以及根据和平协定和停火而终止的可​​能性。对于国际组织和大国所调解的冲突，这种影响尤为明显。学者们往往忽略了人道主义援助与调停相结合的效果会增加内战结束的可能性的方式。我发现，反复调停和高水平的人道主义援助的综合作用增加了冲突将结束以及根据和平协定和停火而终止的可​​能性。对于国际组织和大国所调解的冲突，这种影响尤为明显。学者们往往忽略了人道主义援助与调停相结合的效果会增加内战结束的可能性的方式。我发现，反复调停和高水平的人道主义援助的综合作用增加了冲突将结束以及根据和平协定和停火而终止的可​​能性。对于国际组织和大国所调解的冲突，这种影响尤为明显。