ABSTRACT

Escalating political conflict between major trade partners such as the US and China appears puzzling given theories linking trade to pacific international relations. We reconsider theories on bilateral trade, exposure to the global economy, and politics in order to explain contemporary events. Our approach departs from previous work in three key ways: we examine a broader range of conflictual and cooperative interactions together; we assume leaders are responsive to interests opposed to trade as well as to those who benefit; and we reconceptualize what it means to be a “major trade partner,” presenting a new definition that varies with the dispersion of a state’s trade across partners rather than merely dollar value or GDP composition of trade. We demonstrate that states generally initiate more conflict and more cooperation with major trade partners; and while higher exposure to the global economy reduces conflict initiation against major trade partners, it also reduces cooperation. Simultaneously, higher exposure to the global economy is associated with more initiation of cooperation with non-major trade partners. Using events data spanning 1995–2012, we find empirical support for our expectations.

摘要

鉴于将贸易与和平的国际关系联系在一起的理论，中美等主要贸易伙伴之间不断升级的政治冲突似乎令人困惑。我们重新考虑有关双边贸易，对全球经济的了解和政治的理论，以便解释当代事件。我们的方法在三个关键方面背离了先前的工作：我们一起研究了更广泛的冲突与合作交互；我们假设领导者对反对贸易的利益以及对受益者的利益做出反应；我们重新概念化了成为“主要贸易伙伴”的含义，提出了一个新定义，该定义随国家在各伙伴之间的贸易分散而变化，而不仅仅是美元价值或贸易的GDP组成。我们证明，国家通常会与主要贸易伙伴发起更多的冲突和更多的合作；尽管更多地接触全球经济可以减少与主要贸易伙伴之间的冲突，但也会减少合作。同时，与全球主要经济伙伴的合作越频繁，其对全球经济的关注程度就越高。使用1995年至2012年的事件数据，我们发现了对我们期望的实证支持。