Currently, the real, or inflation-adjusted, price of gold is almost as high as it was in January 1980 and August 2011. Since 1975, periods of high real gold prices have occurred during periods of elevated concern about high future price inflation. Five years after the real price peaks in January 1980 and August 2011, the nominal (real) prices of gold fell 55% (67%) and 28% (33%), respectively. Today’s high real price of gold suggests that gold is an expensive inflation hedge with a low prospective real return. The financialization of gold ownership by exchange-traded funds, however, may introduce a period of irrational exuberance. Disclosure: The authors report no conflicts of interest. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of Tadas Viskanta’s employer, Ritholtz Wealth Management. Ritholtz Wealth Management may hold positions in securities mentioned herein. Viewpoint is an occasional feature of the Financial Analysts Journal. This piece was not subjected to the peer-review process. It reflects the views of the authors and does not represent the official views of the Financial Analysts Journal or CFA Institute.

中文翻译：

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黄金、黄金常数和似曾相识

目前，黄金的实际价格或经通胀调整后的价格几乎与 1980 年 1 月和 2011 年 8 月一样高。自 1975 年以来，在对未来价格高通胀的高度担忧期间出现了高实际金价时期。实际价格在 1980 年 1 月和 2011 年 8 月达到顶峰五年后，黄金的名义（实际）价格分别下跌了 55%（67%）和 28%（33%）。今天黄金的高实际价格表明黄金是一种昂贵的通胀对冲工具，但预期实际回报较低。然而，交易所交易基金对黄金所有权的金融化可能会带来一段非理性繁荣时期。披露：作者报告没有利益冲突。此处表达的观点不一定反映 Tadas Viskanta 的雇主 Ritholtz Wealth Management 的观点。Ritholtz Wealth Management 可能持有此处提及的证券头寸。《观点》是《金融分析师杂志》的偶尔特刊。这篇文章没有经过同行评审过程。它反映了作者的观点，并不代表 Financial Analysts Journal 或 CFA Institute 的官方观点。