ABSTRACT

The recent COVID crisis has had many consequences on social life. This paper focuses on potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility intentions. We employ a theoretical approach, analysing the nexus between fertility and the COVID crisis through the lens of gender roles. The purpose of our analysis is to frame the theoretical paths and to prepare a background for further in-depth analysis based on empirical data. We show that biological reduction of fertility is less likely to occur but that behavioural mechanisms in couple’s decision-making will drive the impact on fertility intentions. The health emergency, economic crisis and social distancing will lead to an adjustment of fertility behaviour, while gender roles and social values will moderate the impact of the pandemic.

抽象的

最近的COVID危机对社会生活产生了许多影响。本文着眼于COVID-19大流行对生育意图的潜在影响。我们采用一种理论方法，通过性别角色的角度分析了生育率与COVID危机之间的联系。我们的分析目的是构筑理论路径，并为基于经验数据的进一步深入分析准备背景。我们表明，生育力降低的可能性较小，但夫妻决策中的行为机制将推动对生育意图的影响。突发卫生事件，经济危机和社会疏远将导致生育行为的调整，而性别角色和社会价值观将缓解大流行的影响。