ABSTRACT

Pakistan has faced frequent flash and riverine flooding in the recent decades. This study evaluates the effectiveness of flood EWS from the perspectives of local experts/institutions and communities. Interviews and consultations with the local experts (13 officials from government and other concerned departments) were carried out to understand the institutional challenges in communicating early warnings, whereas three flood-prone communities from different-sized cities (Rawalpindi, Sialkot and Muzaffargarh) were surveyed. A total of 210 samples were collected through household questionnaire surveys to assess their understanding of the local warning system. The analysis revealed that almost half of the community respondents did not receive a warning last time when the flood occurred. Variations were also observed regarding the main source of early warning in the three communities. This study identifies institutional challenges, such as lack of (1) resources to keep an EWS equipment operational; (2) community trust; and (3) proper guidelines to communicate warnings. The study calls for an immediate revision of strategies to communicate early warnings to the end-users and to incorporate their feedback in designing/redesigning the early warning mechanisms.

摘要

近几十年来，巴基斯坦经常面临山洪泛滥和河流泛滥的危险。这项研究从当地专家/机构和社区的角度评估了洪水预警系统的有效性。与当地专家（来自政府和其他有关部门的13名官员）进行了访谈和协商，以了解在传达预警方面的制度挑战，同时对来自不同规模城市（Rawalpindi，Sialkot和Muzaffargarh）的三个容易发生洪水的社区进行了调查。 。通过家庭问卷调查共收集了210个样本，以评估他们对当地预警系统的了解。分析显示，上次洪水发生时，几乎有一半的社区受访者未收到警告。在三个社区中，主要预警来源也存在差异。这项研究确定了体制方面的挑战，例如：（1）缺乏使EWS设备保持运转所需的资源；（2）社区信任；（3）传达警告的适当准则。该研究呼吁立即修改策略，以将预警传达给最终用户，并将他们的反馈纳入设计/重新设计预警机制中。