ABSTRACT

This study attempted to understand the local perspective on climate change and its impacts on agriculture and household food security in the Karnali region of Nepal – one of the most inaccessible and least researched mountain regions in Nepal. Using the small-scale survey data collected in 2017 from farm households in Tatopani rural municipality of Jumla district, the study found that a majority of households perceived changes in temperature and rainfall patterns, timing of seasons, incidence of drought and water availability, compared with the situation 10 years ago (2007 or earlier). They perceived mixed impacts of climate change on the production of major crops: a decline in the production of brown rice, wheat and barley, and an increase in the production of potato and local beans. Food security analysis showed that farm households had low dietary diversity, and 42% of them were food insecure. Regression analysis found that perceived climate-induced changes in water availability, timing of seasons, incidence of hazards and incidence of crop pest attacks had negative relationship with household food security. Based on the findings, the study suggested some key strategies to improve local food security in the face of climate change in the study area and other similar areas.

摘要

本研究试图了解当地对气候变化的看法及其对尼泊尔卡尔纳利地区农业和家庭粮食安全的影响——尼泊尔卡尔纳利地区是尼泊尔最难以接近和研究最少的山区之一。使用 2017 年从Jumla Tatopani农村自治市的农户收集的小规模调查数据区，研究发现，与 10 年前（2007 年或更早）的情况相比，大多数家庭感知到温度和降雨模式、季节时间、干旱发生率和可用水量的变化。他们认为气候变化对主要农作物的生产产生了复杂的影响：糙米、小麦和大麦的产量下降，而马铃薯和当地豆类的产量增加。粮食安全分析表明，农户饮食多样性较低，其中 42% 的家庭粮食不安全。回归分析发现，感知气候引起的水资源可用性、季节时间、危害发生率和作物病虫害发生率的变化与家庭粮食安全呈负相关。根据调查结果，