ABSTRACT

There are strong calls to integrate scientific and indigenous forecasts to help farmers adapt to climate variability and change. Some studies used qualitative approaches to investigate indigenous people's techniques for forecasting weather and seasonal climate. In this study, we demonstrate how to quantitatively collect indigenous forecast and connect this to scientific forecasts. We identified and characterized the main indigenous ecological indicators (IEIs) local farmers in Northern Ghana use for forecasting. Mental model was constructed to establish the relationship between IEIs and their forecasts. Local farmers were trained to send their rainfall forecast with mobile apps and record observed rainfall with rain gauges. Results show that farmers forecast techniques are based on established cognitive relationship between IEIs and forecast events. Skill assessment shows that on the average both farmers and Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) were able to accurately forecast one out of every three daily rainfall events. Performance at the seasonal scale showed that unlike farmers, GMet was unable to predict rainfall cessation in all communities. We conclude that it is possible to determine the techniques and skills of indigenous forecasts in quantitative terms and that indigenous forecasts are not just intuitive but a skill developed over time and with practice.

摘要

强烈呼吁整合科学和本土预测，以帮助农民适应气候变异和变化。一些研究使用定性方法来调查土著人民预测天气和季节性气候的技术。在这项研究中，我们展示了如何定量收集本土预报并将其与科学预报联系起来。我们确定并描述了加纳北部当地农民用于预测的主要土著生态指标 (IEI)。构建心理模型以建立 IEI 与其预测之间的关系。当地农民接受了培训，可以使用移动应用程序发送他们的降雨预报，并使用雨量计记录观测到的降雨量。结果表明，农民预测技术基于已建立的 IEI 与预测事件之间的认知关系。技能评估显示，平均而言，农民和加纳气象局 (GMet) 能够准确预测每日降雨事件中的三分之一。季节性尺度上的表现表明，与农民不同，GMet 无法预测所有社区的降雨停止。我们得出的结论是，可以从数量上确定本土预测的技术和技能，而且本土预测不仅是直观的，而且是一种随着时间和实践而发展起来的技能。季节性尺度上的表现表明，与农民不同，GMet 无法预测所有社区的降雨停止。我们得出的结论是，可以从数量上确定本土预测的技术和技能，而且本土预测不仅是直观的，而且是一种随着时间和实践而发展起来的技能。季节性尺度上的表现表明，与农民不同，GMet无法预测所有社区的降雨停止情况。我们得出结论，有可能以定量的方式确定土著预报的技术和技能，而且土著预报不仅是直观的，而且是随着时间和实践而发展起来的技能。