Abstract

Scenario planning is a tool for considering alternative futures and their potential impact. The article firstly addresses the paucity of history on management tools by discussing several important lineages in scenario planning’s evolution over time, and the emphasis placed on historical analysis by some specific variants therein. Secondly, it describes how causal analysis can be enhanced in scenario planning by process-tracing important historical developments. Thirdly, it outlines how a scenario planning that incorporates history in this way can assist historians to identify counterfactuals and understand the relative importance of alternative causes, thus enriching historical accounts. It can also enable business historians’ research on the relationship between businesses and their external environments, and on management decision-making. In concluding, scholars of scenario planning and business history are urged to open a mutually-beneficial dialogue. The article initiates this by setting out some ways in which they can cross-fertilise each other.

摘要

情景规划是一种考虑备选未来及其潜在影响的工具。本文首先通过讨论情景规划随时间演变的几个重要谱系，以及其中一些特定变体对历史分析的强调，解决了管理工具历史上缺乏的问题。其次，它描述了如何通过过程跟踪重要的历史发展来增强情景规划中的因果分析。第三，它概述了以这种方式结合历史的情景规划如何帮助历史学家识别反事实并理解替代原因的相对重要性，从而丰富历史记录。它还可以使商业历史学家研究企业与其外部环境之间的关系以及管理决策。最后，敦促情景规划和商业史学者展开互惠互利的对话。这篇文章首先提出了一些他们可以相互交流的方式。