ABSTRACT

Any successful effort to address climate change over the next 25 years will involve a “credible swap” that greatly reduces greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, provides energy in entirely different ways, and also reduces demand for energy. On the demand side, the next quarter century offers abundant high-leverage opportunities to reduce future emissions via intelligent urban design, building construction (notably in the gigantic apartment complexes), and efficient vehicles and appliances. On the supply side, there are three variants of the swap. In one, the work horse is renewable energy (solar power, wind power, hydropower, and power from biological feedstocks); in a second it is nuclear power; and in a third it is a reshaped fossil fuel economy. The three are by no means mutually exclusive. Each brings disruption and risks, rivaling those of climate change if done inattentively. Well-executed solutions will require threading a needle.

摘要

在未来25年内，任何成功解决气候变化的努力都将涉及“可信互换”，这将大大减少化石燃料燃烧产生的温室气体排放，以完全不同的方式提供能源，并减少能源需求。在需求方面，下一个25世纪将提供丰富的高杠杆机会，以通过智能城市设计，房屋建筑（尤其是在大型公寓大楼中）以及高效的车辆和电器来减少未来的排放。在供应方面，交换有三种变体。一方面，工作马是可再生能源（太阳能，风能，水力和生物原料能）；一秒钟是核电；第三是重塑化石燃料经济。这三个绝不是互斥的。每一种都会带来破坏和风险，如果不专心，可以与气候变化相抗衡。执行良好的解决方案将需要穿针。