Prior studies on capital investments, including mergers and acquisitions, point to investment irreversibility as the primary factor behind diminished investments during periods of increased policy uncertainty. We show that increased relational risk, due to the potential for counterparty misbehavior or shirking and higher contracting costs, appears to be the primary driver behind the diminished propensity to undertake strategic alliances during enhanced policy uncertainty regimes. Alliances are even less likely during such times when they (a) involve more than two firms, (b) are in industries with greater counterparty risk, and (c) involve partners that require intense contracts.

中文翻译：

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政策不确定性是否会增加相关风险？来自战略联盟的证据

先前关于资本投资（包括并购）的研究指出，在政策不确定性增加的时期，投资的不可逆转性是投资减少的主要因素。我们表明，由于交易对手不当行为或偷懒的可能性以及更高的合同成本，关系风险的增加似乎是在政策不确定性增强的情况下进行战略联盟的倾向减弱的主要驱动因素。在这种情况下，联盟更不可能 (a) 涉及两家以上的公司，(b) 处于交易对手风险较高的行业，以及 (c) 涉及需要紧密合同的合作伙伴。