Firms that follow excessive payout policies (over-payers) are higher on the financial distress spectrum and have lower survival rates than under-payers. In addition, over-payers endure lower future sales and asset growth than under-payers and experience negative abnormal returns in the bond and stock markets. Exogenous import tariff reductions and commodity price jumps reduce the likelihood of overpayment. We interpret this as evidence consistent with financial flexibility considerations, rather than risk-shifting, explaining the decision to overpay. We also find that CEO overconfidence and catering incentives affect overpayment.

中文翻译：

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超额的企业支出和财务困境风险

与支付不足者相比，遵循过度支付政策（过度支付者）的公司在财务困境范围内更高，存活率更低。此外，与支付不足者相比，支付过高者承受的未来销售和资产增长较低，并在债券和股票市场上出现负异常回报。外源性进口关税降低和商品价格上涨减少了多付的可能性。我们将此解释为与财务灵活性考虑一致的证据，而不是风险转移，解释了多付的决定。我们还发现 CEO 过度自信和餐饮激励会影响超额支付。