This study examined the effect of fiscal tightening and loosening on the public debt of sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries. To achieve this, the study employed a two‐step approach. In the first step, the effect of government primary balance on public debt was examined; while in the second step, the primary balance was disaggregated into its surplus and deficit components with the effect of each component on public debt examined. By utilising data covering a panel of 37 SSA countries for the period 2008 to 2017, the study employed the Panel System Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) model for analysis. Estimation results indicated that fiscal tightening (via government surpluses) produces a depressing effect on the stock of public debt while fiscal loosening increases the stock of public debt. Economic growth was also found to be effective in reducing public debt. The study cautions against protracted fiscal tightening due to its potential negative effect on economic growth and social welfare, thereby rendering it counterproductive.

中文翻译：

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财政紧缩（放松）会减少公共债务吗？

这项研究检查了财政紧缩和放松对撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）国家公共债务的影响。为了实现这一目标，该研究采用了两步法。第一步，研究了政府基本平衡对公共债务的影响；而在第二步中，基本余额被分解为盈余和赤字部分，每个部分对所审查的公共债务都有影响。通过利用涵盖2008年至2017年期间37个撒哈拉以南非洲国家的面板数据，该研究采用面板系统广义矩法（GMM）模型进行分析。估计结果表明，财政紧缩（通过政府盈余）对公共债务存量产生了抑制作用，而财政放松则增加了公共债务存量。还发现经济增长可有效减少公共债务。这项研究告诫人们不要过度收紧财政紧缩政策，因为它可能对经济增长和社会福利产生负面影响，从而使其适得其反。