This study investigates the spatial and temporal patterns of property crime at the census block level in the mid-sized, medium- to high-income city of Coral Gables, Florida, USA, between 2004 and 2016. Specifically, we analyzed residential and vehicular burglary. We used Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA) to locate and identify crime hot and cold spots over time. In order to understand the role that various sociodemographic variables play in predicting crime patterns, geographically weighted regression (GWR) was used to analyze the spatial clustering of crime, and commercial areas, renter percentage, median household income, and multifamily households. Our results revealed consistent hotspots for residential and vehicle burglary within the northeast area of the city, while vehicle burglary had hotspots along U.S. Route 1 (US-1)—a main road in Coral Gables—and around the University of Miami, with emerging hotspots within the northwest part of the city bordering lower-income areas. Hotspots were associated with structural factors within and around the city including more multifamily homes, higher poverty rates, more renters, and greater economic disadvantage in surrounding municipalities. Social disorganization and routine activity perspectives are supported as frameworks to understand crime patterns in this context. The findings suggest that policymakers should target specific locations using geospatial analyses to better address property crime.

中文翻译：

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富裕城市的犯罪：佛罗里达州科勒尔盖布尔斯财产犯罪的空间模式

本研究调查了 2004 年至 2016 年美国佛罗里达州科勒盖布尔斯中等规模、中高收入城市的人口普查街区财产犯罪的时空模式。具体而言，我们分析了住宅和车辆入室盗窃. 我们使用新兴热点分析 (EHSA) 来定位和识别一段时间内的犯罪热点和冷点。为了了解各种社会人口变量在预测犯罪模式中的作用，使用地理加权回归 (GWR) 来分析犯罪、商业区、租户百分比、家庭收入中位数和多户家庭的空间聚类。我们的研究结果显示，该市东北部地区住宅和车辆盗窃的热点是一致的，而车辆盗窃在美国沿线有热点 1 号公路 (US-1) - Coral Gables 的一条主要道路 - 以及迈阿密大学周围，城市西北部的新兴热点与低收入地区接壤。热点与城市内外的结构性因素有关，包括更多的多户住宅、更高的贫困率、更多的租房者以及周边城市更大的经济劣势。社会解体和日常活动的观点被支持作为在这种情况下理解犯罪模式的框架。调查结果表明，政策制定者应使用地理空间分析针对特定地点，以更好地解决财产犯罪问题。热点与城市内外的结构性因素有关，包括更多的多户住宅、更高的贫困率、更多的租房者以及周边城市更大的经济劣势。社会解体和日常活动的观点被支持作为在这种情况下理解犯罪模式的框架。调查结果表明，政策制定者应使用地理空间分析针对特定地点，以更好地解决财产犯罪问题。热点与城市内外的结构性因素有关，包括更多的多户住宅、更高的贫困率、更多的租房者以及周边城市更大的经济劣势。社会解体和日常活动的观点被支持作为在这种情况下理解犯罪模式的框架。调查结果表明，政策制定者应使用地理空间分析针对特定地点，以更好地解决财产犯罪问题。