Changes in fertility patterns are hypothesized to be among the many second-order consequences of armed conflict, but expectations about the direction of such effects are theoretically ambiguous. Prior research, from a range of contexts, has also yielded inconsistent results. We contribute to this debate by using harmonized data and methods to examine the effects of exposure to conflict on preferred and observed fertility outcomes across a spatially and temporally extensive population. We use high-resolution georeferenced data from 25 sub-Saharan African countries, combining records of violent events from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) with data on fertility goals and outcomes from the Demographic and Health Surveys (n = 368,765 women aged 15–49 years). We estimate a series of linear and logistic regression models to assess the effects of exposure to conflict events on ideal family size and the probability of childbearing within the 12 months prior to the interview. We find that, on average, exposure to armed conflict leads to modest reductions in both respondents’ preferred family size and their probability of recent childbearing. Many of these effects are heterogeneous between demographic groups and across contexts, which suggests systematic differences in women’s vulnerability or preferred responses to armed conflict. Additional analyses suggest that conflict-related fertility declines may be driven by delays or reductions in marriage. These results contribute new evidence about the demographic effects of conflict and their underlying mechanisms, and broadly underline the importance of studying the second-order effects of organized violence on vulnerable populations.

中文翻译：

---

撒哈拉以南非洲的武装冲突和生育能力

生育模式的变化被假设为武装冲突的许多次要后果之一，但对这种影响方向的预期在理论上是模棱两可的。从一系列背景来看，先前的研究也产生了不一致的结果。我们通过使用统一的数据和方法来检查冲突暴露对空间和时间上广泛的人口的首选和观察到的生育结果的影响，从而为这场辩论做出贡献。我们使用来自 25 个撒哈拉以南非洲国家的高分辨率地理参考数据，将来自武装冲突地点和事件数据项目 (ACLD) 的暴力事件记录与来自人口与健康调查 ( n= 368,765 名 15-49 岁女性）。我们估计了一系列线性和逻辑回归模型，以评估接触冲突事件对理想家庭规模和访谈前 12 个月内生育概率的影响。我们发现，平均而言，暴露于武装冲突会导致受访者首选的家庭规模和近期生育的可能性略有减少。其中许多影响在人口群体之间和不同背景下是异质的，这表明妇女的脆弱性或对武装冲突的首选反应存在系统性差异。其他分析表明，与冲突相关的生育率下降可能是由于婚姻延迟或减少所致。这些结果提供了关于冲突的人口影响及其潜在机制的新证据，