The purpose of the current study was to determine whether a change in criminal thinking or a change in perceived certainty mediates the putative criminogenic effect of incarceration. A path analysis of 1,170 male delinquents revealed that incarceration prior to age 19 produced a negative rather than positive effect on offending behavior at age 20, although it did predict an increase in proactive criminal thinking (PCT) from age 18 to age 19. PCT, in turn, predicted a rise in past year offending. Perceived certainty of punishment, on the other hand, failed to mediate the effect of incarceration on future offending.

中文翻译：

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监禁的犯罪效应是由犯罪思维的变化还是感知确定性的变化所介导的？

本研究的目的是确定犯罪思维的变化或感知确定性的变化是否介导了监禁的假定犯罪效应。对 1,170 名男性犯罪者的路径分析显示，19 岁之前的监禁对 20 岁的犯罪行为产生了负面而非正面的影响，尽管它确实预测了从 18 岁到 19 岁的主动犯罪思维 (PCT) 的增加。PCT，反过来，预测过去一年的犯罪率会上升。另一方面，对刑罚的确定性无法调节监禁对未来犯罪的影响。