This study examines the relationship between structural characteristics and homicide trajectories in South Korean neighborhoods utilizing the systemic model of social disorganization theory as an analytical lens. Group-based trajectory modeling of Korean homicide data across 229 municipal-level sub-national regions between 2008 and 2013 yielded three groups: high-decrease, moderate, and low-stable. The odds of belonging to the high and moderate groups compared to the low-stable group were significantly increased for communities with a higher-level divorce rate and residential instability rate. Social control was significant in the high-decrease group compared to the low-stable group, but had no mediating effect on this relationship.

本研究以社会解体理论的系统模型作为分析视角，考察了韩国社区结构特征与凶杀轨迹之间的关系。在2008年至2013年之间，对229个市县以下地区的韩国凶杀数据进行基于组的轨迹建模，得出了三组：高下降，中和低稳定。对于离婚率和居住不稳定率较高的社区，属于高，中度群体与低稳定群体相比的几率显着增加。与低稳定组相比，高下降组的社交控制明显，但对这种关系没有中介作用。