Affective forecasting refers to the ability to predict future emotions, a skill that is essential to making decisions on a daily basis. Studies of the concept have determined that individuals are often inaccurate in making such affective forecasts. However, the mechanisms of these errors are not yet clear. In order to better understand why affective forecasting errors occur, this article seeks to trace the theoretical roots of this theory with a focus on its multidisciplinary history. The roots of affective forecasting lie mainly in economics, with early claims positing that utility (i.e. satisfaction) played a role in decision-making. Furthermore, the philosopher Jeremy Bentham’s descriptions of utilitarianism played a major role in our understanding of whether to define utility as a hedonic quality. The birth of behavioural economics resulted in a paradigm shift, introducing the concept of cognitive biases as influences on the accuracy of predicted utility. Daniel Gilbert and Timothy Wilson, the earliest researchers of affective forecasting errors, have proceeded with the concept of the accuracy of predicted affective utility to conduct experiments that seek to determine why our predictions of future affect are inaccurate and how such errors play a role in our decision-making.

情感预测是指预测未来情绪的能力，这项技能对于每天做出决定至关重要。对这一概念的研究已经确定，个人在做出这样的情感预测时往往不准确。但是，这些错误的机制尚不清楚。为了更好地理解为什么会发生情感预测错误，本文力图追踪该理论的理论渊源，重点是其多学科历史。情感预测的根源主要在于经济学，早期的主张认为效用（即满意度）在决策中起着作用。此外，哲学家杰里米·边沁对功利主义的描述在我们是否将效用定义为享乐主义品质的理解中起了重要作用。行为经济学的诞生导致范式的转变，引入了认知偏见的概念，影响了预期效用的准确性。情感预测错误的最早研究者丹尼尔·吉尔伯特（Taniel Gilbert）和蒂莫西·威尔逊（Timothy Wilson）提出了预测情感效用的准确性的概念，以进行实验，以确定我们对未来影响的预测为何不准确，以及此类错误如何对我们产生影响。做决定。