Science has a mixed record when it comes to predicting the future. Engineers build bridges based on foreknowledge of the forces that they are likely to encounter – and their constructions tend to withstand the test of time. Predicting the future course of epidemics and building intervention to contain them are much more precarious. And yet simulation models produced in prestigious centres for mathematical biology have played a significant role informing coronavirus policy in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. The predictive uncertainties include the inherent variability of the pathogen, considerable variation in host population immunity as well as the concern of this article, namely, the constantly adapting human judgements of those designing, implementing and experiencing the national response to an outbreak. Assumptions about how interventions are implemented and how people will react are, of course, built into modelling scenarios – but these estimates depict behavioural change in fixed, stimulus-response terms. Real reactions to the complex restrictions introduced to combat the virus unfold in scores of different pathways – people comply, they resist, they learn, they grow weary, they change their minds, they seek exceptions and so on. Model building is intrinsically speculative, and it is important that crisis management is not boxed in by its latent simplifications. A more pluralistic evidence base needs to be drawn on, to understand how complex interventions operate within complex societies.

中文翻译：

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冠状病毒反应：由模型框入

在预测未来方面，科学的记录喜忧参半。工程师们根据对可能遇到的力的预知来建造桥梁——他们的结构往往经得起时间的考验。预测流行病的未来进程并建立干预措施来控制它们要危险得多。然而，著名的数学生物学中心产生的模拟模型在英国和其他地方的冠状病毒政策方面发挥了重要作用。预测的不确定性包括病原体的固有变异性、宿主群体免疫力的显着变化以及本文关注的问题，即设计、实施和体验国家对爆发的反应的人不断调整人类判断。当然，关于干预措施如何实施以及人们将如何反应的假设已内置于建模场景中——但这些估计以固定的刺激-反应术语描述了行为变化。对为抗击病毒而引入的复杂限制的真实反应在许多不同的途径中展开——人们遵守、抵制、学习、厌倦、改变主意、寻求例外等等。模型构建本质上是投机性的，重要的是危机管理不会被其潜在的简化所束缚。需要利用更多元化的证据基础，以了解复杂的干预措施如何在复杂的社会中运作。刺激-反应术语。对为抗击病毒而引入的复杂限制的真实反应以多种不同的方式展开——人们遵守、抵制、学习、厌倦、改变主意、寻求例外等等。模型构建本质上是投机性的，重要的是危机管理不会被其潜在的简化所束缚。需要利用更多元化的证据基础，以了解复杂的干预措施如何在复杂的社会中运作。刺激-反应术语。对为抗击病毒而引入的复杂限制的真实反应在许多不同的途径中展开——人们遵守、抵制、学习、厌倦、改变主意、寻求例外等等。模型构建本质上是投机性的，重要的是危机管理不会被其潜在的简化所束缚。需要利用更多元化的证据基础，以了解复杂的干预措施如何在复杂的社会中运作。重要的是，危机管理不会被其潜在的简化所束缚。需要利用更多元化的证据基础，以了解复杂的干预措施如何在复杂的社会中运作。重要的是，危机管理不会被其潜在的简化所束缚。需要利用更多元化的证据基础，以了解复杂的干预措施如何在复杂的社会中运作。