This article discusses several practical issues arising with the application of diagnostic principles to theory-based evaluation (e.g. with Process Tracing and Bayesian Updating). It is structured around three iterative application steps, focusing mostly on the third. While covering different ways evaluators fall victims to confirmation bias and conservatism, the article includes suggestions on which theories can be tested, what kind of empirical material can act as evidence and how to estimate the Bayes formula values/update confidence, including when working with ranges and qualitative confidence descriptors. The article tackles evidence packages (one of the most problematical practical issues), proposing ways to (a) set boundaries of single observations that can be considered independent and handled numerically; (b) handle evidence packages when numerical probability estimates are not available. Some concepts are exemplified using a policy influence process where an institution’s strategy has been influenced by a knowledge product by another organisation.

中文翻译：

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诊断评估和贝叶斯更新：常见问题的实用解决方案

本文讨论了将诊断原理应用于基于理论的评估（例如过程跟踪和贝叶斯更新）时出现的几个实际问题。它围绕三个迭代应用程序步骤构建，主要关注第三个步骤。虽然涵盖了评估者成为确认偏见和保守主义受害者的不同方式，文章还包括关于哪些理论可以被测试、什么样的经验材料可以作为证据以及如何估计贝叶斯公式值/更新置信度的建议，包括在使用范围时和定性置信描述符。这篇文章解决了证据包（最有问题的实际问题之一），提出了以下方法：（a）设置可以被认为是独立的并以数字方式处理的单个观察的边界；(b) 在数字概率估计不可用时处理证据包。一些概念使用政策影响过程来举例说明，其中一个机构的战略受到另一个组织的知识产品的影响。