In recent years, various academic studies have proposed crime forecasting models based on the concept of repeat victimization. Some of them have been modelled from the area of differential equations and others from the perspective of spatio-temporal statistics, within the framework of point processes. These models have tended towards a certain sophistication in their formulation, which at times impedes understanding of the predictive mechanism and how it adapts to different realities. Predictive models that function well in one environment or society do not appear to do so in others. In this article, the possibility of crime forecasting for burglaries with forced entry in Catalonia is studied from the perspective of near repeat victimization on a larger territorial scale than is usual. To this effect, the explicative and predictive possibilities of this criminological theory are explored and a predictive system that does not require mathematical or statistical models is proposed. We found that a large part of the series of burglaries with forced entry in residences in Catalonia between 2014 and 2015 follow patterns of near repeat victimization. In addition, the average intensity of burglaries in space–time was high, as was the standard deviation. This system is adaptable to different environments and gives police forces the opportunity to improve preventative strategies and to optimize resources using standard tools. Last, the limitations of this approach are debated and new lines of investigation proposed that could increase its predictive capacity without abandoning the concept of repeat victimization.

近年来，各种学术研究都基于重复受害的概念提出了犯罪预测模型。其中一些是在微分方程领域建模的，而其他一些则是在点过程框架内从时空统计的角度建模的。这些模型的制定趋于复杂，有时会阻碍对预测机制以及其如何适应不同现实的理解。在一种环境或社会中运作良好的预测模型在其他环境或社会中似乎没有。在本文中，从近距离重复受害的范围比平常更大的角度研究了加泰罗尼亚被迫进入的爆窃案的犯罪预测可能性。为此，探讨了这种犯罪学理论的解释性和预测性可能性，并提出了一种不需要数学或统计模型的预测系统。我们发现，2014年至2015年间在加泰罗尼亚被迫进入住宅的一系列盗窃案中，有很大一部分遵循了近乎重复受害的模式。此外，时空盗窃的平均强度很高，标准差也很高。该系统可适应不同的环境，并为警察部队提供了使用标准工具改进预防策略和优化资源的机会。最后，对这种方法的局限性进行了辩论，并提出了新的研究方法，可以提高其预测能力而又不放弃重复受害的概念。