How small-business owners assess uncertainty and risk in the macroeconomic environment to report optimism toward their business activity is an important research question for policymakers and academics alike. Drawing on a monthly optimism index and a variety of uncertainty and volatility (risk) trackers from January 1986 to June 2017, in line with the expectation that business owners dislike uncertainty in economic policy, economic policy uncertainty may lower optimism. Business investment and sentiment volatility, however, contributed positively to optimism. The findings provide preliminary implications for policymakers in targeting indicators salient to the optimism index of small-business owners.

小企业主如何评估宏观经济环境中的不确定性和风险，以报告对其商业活动的乐观态度，这对政策制定者和学者都是一个重要的研究问题。利用1986年1月至2017年6月的每月乐观指数以及各种不确定性和波动性（风险）跟踪器，符合企业主不喜欢经济政策不确定性的预期，经济政策不确定性可能会降低乐观情绪。然而，商业投资和情绪波动对乐观情绪起到了积极作用。研究结果为决策者提供了针对小型企业所有者乐观指数的指标。