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Relative Deprivation as a Factor of Sociopolitical Destabilization: Toward a Quantitative Comparative Analysis of the Arab Spring Events
Cross-Cultural Research ( IF 2.178 ) Pub Date : 2019-11-05 , DOI: 10.1177/1069397119882364
Andrey V. Korotayev 1, 2 , Alisa R. Shishkina 1, 2
Affiliation  

The article analyzes relative deprivation as a possible factor of sociopolitical instability during the Arab Spring events using the methods of correlation and multiple regression analysis. In this case, relative deprivation is operationalized in two ways: (a) through the indicator of subjective feeling of happiness on the eve of the events of the Arab Spring, and (b) through the scale of decrease of the subjective feeling of happiness on the eve of the events of Arab Spring. It is shown that the change in the level of subjective feeling of happiness between 2009 and 2010 is a powerful, statistically significant predictor of the level of destabilization in Arab countries in 2011. The next most powerful predictor is the mean value of the subjective feeling of happiness in the corresponding country for 2010. At the same time, the fundamental economic indicators we tested, while controlling for them, have turned out to be extremely weak and at the same time statistically insignificant predictors of the level of sociopolitical instability in the Arab countries in 2011.

中文翻译:

作为社会政治不稳定因素的相对剥夺:阿拉伯之春事件的定量比较分析

本文使用相关性和多元回归分析方法分析了相对剥夺作为阿拉伯之春事件期间社会政治不稳定的可能因素。在这种情况下,相对剥夺以两种方式运作:(a)通过阿拉伯之春事件前夕主观幸福感的指标,以及(b)通过在阿拉伯之春事件前夕主观幸福感的下降程度。阿拉伯之春事件前夕。结果表明,2009 年至 2010 年主观幸福感水平的变化是 2011 年阿拉伯国家不稳定程度的有力且具有统计显着性的预测指标。 2010年相应国家的幸福。同时,
更新日期:2019-11-05
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