How do different degrees of displaced people’s hardship shape their expectations of peace and violence in post-conflict societies? We develop a novel explanation and empirically examine it using survey data collected in Bosnia Herzegovina in 2013. The displaced may suffer by being the target of the hostility of opposing groups and/or by receiving little support from, or being mistreated by, their own groups and international actors. As a result, they develop negative opinions about these actors, friend and foe alike, become pessimistic about the possibility of cooperation, and see post-conflict peace as unsustainable. We find those who have suffered greater hardship during displacement are more likely to foresee political violence. Hardship during displacement is also a stronger predictor than the experience of violence. Our analysis implies that, while violence does have an impact as suggested by the literature, other hardship during displacement, such as the lack of support, also matters.

不同程度的流离失所者的苦难如何塑造他们对冲突后社会对和平与暴力的期望？我们提出了一种新颖的解释，并使用2013年在波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那收集的调查数据进行了实证研究。流离失所者可能遭受敌对群体敌对的目标和/或得不到自己群体的支持或遭受自己群体的虐待和国际演员。结果，他们对这些行为者，无论是敌友，都产生了消极看法，对合作的可能性感到悲观，并认为冲突后的和平是不可持续的。我们发现，那些在流离失所中遭受更大苦难的人更有可能预见到政治暴力。比起暴力经历，流离失所期间的苦难也是一个更强有力的预测指标。我们的分析表明，