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The Urge to Purge: Forecasting Erdogan’s Political Survival Following the Failed Coup
Alternatives: Global, Local, Political ( IF 2.000 ) Pub Date : 2018-11-01 , DOI: 10.1177/0304375419842749
Malcolm R. Easton 1 , Randolph M. Siverson 1
Affiliation  

Drawing upon earlier research on the post failed coup survival of political leaders, we offer an ex ante in sample estimate of the likely political survival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the fail coup of 2016. Depending on the assumption made about when he entered office, we conclude that his tenure is likely to endure until 2026, a result that was reached before his recent call for a snap election and its implications. We conclude with a brief discussion of the policy implications of President Erdogan’s likely length of tenure.

中文翻译:

清洗的冲动:预测政变失败后埃尔多安的政治生存

借鉴早期对政变失败后政治领导人的生存情况的研究,我们提供了对土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安在 2016 年政变失败后可能的政治生存的事前抽样估计。取决于对他上任时间的假设,我们得出结论,他的任期可能会持续到 2026 年,这是在他最近呼吁提前选举及其影响之前达成的结果。最后,我们简要讨论了埃尔多安总统可能任期的政策影响。
更新日期:2018-11-01
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