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Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity
Science ( IF 56.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-12 , DOI: 10.1126/science.abe6522 Jennie S. Lavine 1 , Ottar N. Bjornstad 2 , Rustom Antia 1
Science ( IF 56.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-12 , DOI: 10.1126/science.abe6522 Jennie S. Lavine 1 , Ottar N. Bjornstad 2 , Rustom Antia 1
Affiliation
We are currently faced with the question of how the CoV-2 severity may change in the years ahead. Our analysis of immunological and epidemiological data on endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs) shows that infection-blocking immunity wanes rapidly, but disease-reducing immunity is long-lived. Our model, incorporating these components of immunity, recapitulates both the current severity of CoV-2 and the benign nature of HCoVs, suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached and primary exposure is in childhood, CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold. We predict a different outcome for an emergent coronavirus that causes severe disease in children. These results reinforce the importance of behavioral containment during pandemic vaccine rollout, while prompting us to evaluate scenarios for continuing vaccination in the endemic phase.
中文翻译:
免疫学特征控制 COVID-19 向地方性流行的转变
我们目前面临的问题是,未来几年 CoV-2 的严重程度可能会如何变化。我们对地方性人类冠状病毒 (HCoV) 的免疫学和流行病学数据的分析表明,阻断感染的免疫迅速减弱,但减少疾病的免疫却是长期存在的。我们的模型结合了免疫的这些组成部分,概括了当前 CoV-2 的严重程度和 HCoV 的良性,表明一旦达到地方性流行阶段并且在儿童时期初次接触,CoV-2 的毒性可能不会比普通感冒。我们预测导致儿童严重疾病的新型冠状病毒会出现不同的结果。这些结果强化了大流行疫苗推出期间行为控制的重要性,同时促使我们评估在流行阶段继续接种疫苗的情景。
更新日期:2021-01-12
中文翻译:
免疫学特征控制 COVID-19 向地方性流行的转变
我们目前面临的问题是,未来几年 CoV-2 的严重程度可能会如何变化。我们对地方性人类冠状病毒 (HCoV) 的免疫学和流行病学数据的分析表明,阻断感染的免疫迅速减弱,但减少疾病的免疫却是长期存在的。我们的模型结合了免疫的这些组成部分,概括了当前 CoV-2 的严重程度和 HCoV 的良性,表明一旦达到地方性流行阶段并且在儿童时期初次接触,CoV-2 的毒性可能不会比普通感冒。我们预测导致儿童严重疾病的新型冠状病毒会出现不同的结果。这些结果强化了大流行疫苗推出期间行为控制的重要性,同时促使我们评估在流行阶段继续接种疫苗的情景。