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Trends in public debt sustainability in Central and Eastern EU countries
Post-Communist Economies ( IF 2.126 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-12
Alexandra-Claudia Grosu, Carmen Pintilescu, Bogdan Zugravu

ABSTRACT

The topic of public debt sustainability has been in the spotlight in the economic literature since the crisis of 2008. In this paper, we study governments’ reactions to the accumulation of debt from 11 CEECs, using annual data from 2000 to 2019. The empirical approach applied in the paper includes both panel data regression and time series estimations using penalised spline regression. We use a semi-parametric model with time-varying coefficients and we include in the model some variables that reflect both economic and institutional dimensions, which are particularly relevant in the case of CEECs. Empirical results show that only a few countries have pursued sustainable public debt policies. But the decreasing time path of the smooth term shows a weak sustainability policy, even for these countries. Our results emphasise that these countries’ authorities should place more importance on the stabilisation of public debt and should maintain prudent fiscal policy.



中文翻译:

中欧和东欧国家公共债务可持续性的趋势

摘要

自2008年危机以来,公共债务可持续性一直是经济文献中关注的话题。在本文中,我们使用2000年至2019年的年度数据研究了政府对11个中东欧国家债务积累的反应。实证方法本文中应用的方法包括面板数据回归和使用惩罚样条回归的时间序列估计。我们使用具有时变系数的半参数模型,并且在模型中包括一些既反映经济方面又反映机构方面的变量,这些变量在CEEC中尤为重要。实证结果表明,只有少数几个国家奉行可持续的公共债务政策。但是,即使对于这些国家而言,平稳期的时间路径减少也表明其可持续性政策薄弱。

更新日期:2021-01-13
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