We develop and analyze a multilevel model of fatal police shootings to better understand the interplay between individual-level and contextual-level factors in incidents of police use of deadly force. We use a three-level hierarchical logistic regression model to identify Census tract-, city-, and state-level predictors of fatal police shootings and a four-level model to identify predictors of fatal police shootings of black victims at the incident, Census tract, city, and state levels. We find that higher levels of concentrated disadvantage and interpersonal firearm violence in a Census tract are significant predictors of the likelihood of any fatal police shooting occurring in that tract. We also find that conditional upon a fatal police shooting having occurred in a Census tract, knowing that the victim was unarmed is a significant predictor of the likelihood that the victim was black. Three other predictors of a police shooting victim being black were a higher proportion of black residents in the Census tract, a greater presence of police officers in the city, and a higher level of black-white residential segregation in the state. We conclude that reducing excessive police use of deadly force requires consideration of not only the individual interactions between officers and citizens, but also the quantity of interactions and the characteristics of the place in which these interactions occur. Special consideration must be given to ameliorating the consequences of structural racism, including racial segregation, over-policing of predominantly black neighborhoods, concentrated disadvantage in segregated neighborhoods, and racial inequalities in income and wealth.

我们开发并分析了致命警察枪击事件的多层次模型，以更好地理解警察使用致命武力事件中个人层次和背景层次因素之间的相互作用。我们使用三级分层逻辑回归模型来确定人口普查区，城市和州的致命警察枪击事件的预测指标，并使用四级模型来确定事故中黑人受害者在人口普查区的致命警察枪击事件的预测指标，城市和州级别。我们发现，人口普查区中较高的集中不利条件和人际枪支暴力程度是该区发生致命警察枪击可能性的重要预测指标。我们还发现，以人口普查区发生的致命警察枪击为条件，知道受害者没有武装，这是受害者是黑人的重要预测指标。警察开枪打死受害者是黑人的其他三个预测因素是，人口普查区的黑人居民比例更高，城市中警察人数更多，而该州的黑人白人居民隔离程度更高。我们得出的结论是，减少警察过度使用致命武力不仅需要考虑官员与公民之间的个人互动，还需要考虑互动的数量以及这些互动发生地的特征。必须特别考虑减轻结构性种族主义的后果，包括种族隔离，对黑人居多的地方实行过度治安，在种族隔离的地区集中劣势，