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European Goods Market Integration in the Very Long Run: From the Black Death to the First World War
The Journal of Economic History ( IF 2.459 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-13 , DOI: 10.1017/s0022050720000637
Giovanni Federico , Max-Stephan Schulze , Oliver Volckart

This paper examines price convergence and changes in the efficiency of wheat markets, covering the period from the mid-fourteenth to the early twentieth century and most of Europe. The analysis is based on a new data set of prices from almost 600 markets. Unlike previous research, we find that convergence was a predominantly pre-modern phenomenon. It started in the late fifteenth century, advanced rapidly until the beginning of the seventeenth century when it temporarily stalled, resumed after the Thirty Years’ War, and accelerated after the Napoleonic Wars in response to trade liberalization. From the late 1840s, convergence petered out and turned into divergence after 1875 as policy decisions dominated technological change. Our results point to the ‘Little Divergence’ between North-Western Europe and the rest of the continent as starting about 1600. Long-term improvements in market efficiency began in the early sixteenth century, with advances over time being as uneven as in price convergence. We trace this to differential institutional change and the non-synchronous spread of modern media and systems of information transmission that affected the ability of merchants to react to news.

中文翻译:

从长远来看欧洲商品市场一体化:从黑死病到第一次世界大战

本文研究了小麦市场效率的价格趋同和变化,涵盖了从 14 世纪中叶到 20 世纪初以及欧洲大部分地区的时期。该分析基于来自近 600 个市场的新价格数据集。与之前的研究不同,我们发现融合主要是一种前现代现象。它始于 15 世纪后期,迅速发展,直到 17 世纪初暂时停滞,在 30 年战争后恢复,并在拿破仑战争后加速发展以应对贸易自由化。从 1840 年代后期开始,随着政策决定主导技术变革,趋同逐渐消失,并在 1875 年后转变为分歧。我们的研究结果表明,西北欧与欧洲大陆其他地区之间的“小幅分歧”始于 1600 年左右。市场效率的长期改善始于 16 世纪初期,随着时间的推移,进展与价格趋同一样不平衡. 我们将此追溯到不同的制度变迁以及现代媒体和信息传输系统的非同步传播,这些传播影响了商家对新闻的反应能力。
更新日期:2021-01-13
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