ABSTRACT

We interrogate mathematical modelling as an instrument of knowledge co-production by concentrating on the classical probabilistic operationalization of decision-making under uncertainty used for informing climate change mitigation options. We construct our co-productive assessment framework by first retrieving criticisms targeted at expected utility theory in relation to its epistemic and ethical limits in dealing with ‘true’ uncertainty. We then reflect on how ethical values should operate in relation to uncertainty in order to live up to the co-production ideal and specifically, to the principle of Responsible Research and Innovation. We thus undertake the perspective of a general modeller and test our reflections by imagining the classical probabilistic space of calculation as a space of negotiation between probabilities, ideas, values and beliefs. We thus propose an alternative ‘public’ space of calculation in which the conditions for co-production are set up on a pragmatic and moral account of rational expectations.

摘要

我们通过专注于不确定性的经典概率运算来告知气候变化缓解方案，从而将数学建模作为知识联合生产的一种工具进行质询。我们通过首先针对预期效用理论的批评在处理“真实”不确定性方面的认识论和道德极限，来构建我们的协同生产评估框架。然后，我们思考伦理价值观应如何与不确定性相关联，以实现共同生产的理想，尤其是负责任的研究和创新原则。因此，我们接受一般建模者的观点，并通过将经典的概率计算空间想象为概率，思想，价值观和信念。因此，我们提出了一种替代性的“公共”计算空间，在这种空间中，联合生产的条件是建立在理性期望的务实和道义上的。