ABSTRACT The Western Balkan region needs credible European development prospects to break the cycle of enlargement and accession fatigue and to speed up regional adjustment to the EU. Post-accession EU budget flows can provide the necessary funding for such prospects. This article assesses the expected changes in the size and composition of EU budget flows to the Western Balkan countries after their EU accession. Our results show a sudden and substantial increase in gross and net flows, which gradually intensifies over several years before levelling off. EU budget flows are economically important relative to the size of the Western Balkan economies, and their composition is strongly biased towards development policies. We also find that Western Balkan enlargement comes at a minimal budgetary cost for the remaining EU member states. Our findings can help reduce scepticism behind the Western Balkan countries’ accession fatigue and the EU’s enlargement fatigue.

中文翻译：

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西巴尔干与欧盟预算：扩大的影响

摘要巴尔干西部地区需要可靠的欧洲发展前景，以打破扩张和加入疲劳的周期，并加快对欧盟的区域调整。加入后的欧盟预算流量可以为此类前景提供必要的资金。本文评估了加入欧盟后，流向西巴尔干国家的欧盟预算流量的规模和构成的预期变化。我们的结果表明，总流量和净流量突然大幅增加，并且在趋于平稳之前的几年中逐渐加剧。相对于西巴尔干经济体的规模，欧盟的预算流动在经济上具有重要意义，其构成严重偏向于发展政策。我们还发现，对其他欧盟成员国来说，西巴尔干地区的扩建以最低的预算成本实现。